Real-time Forecasting of Winds, Waves and Surge in Tropical Cyclones


The long-term goal of this NOPP partnership is to establish an operational forecasting system of the wind field and resulting waves and surge impacting the coastline during the approach and landfall of tropical cyclones. The results of this forecasting system will provide real-time information and predictions of up to five days to the National Hurricane Center during the tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic for establishing improved advisories for the general public and federal agencies including military and civil emergency response teams. The feasibility of such a forecast system has been demonstrated with a test case of "Hurricane Georges." Over the past decade individual modules comprising the forecasting system have been developed and independently tested for years and are now ready to be coupled in a complete forecasting system. This proposal is to establish a "node" to develop an integrative coastal model for storm wind, wave, and surge predictions. The goal for the first year is to implement and fully test the forecasting system to ensure data flow and computational efficiency. Goals for years two and three are for the testing of a prototype in a semi-operational phase. Output during this period, subject to evaluation and assessment, may be provided on a contingency basis. Full operational capability is the goal for the fourth and fifth years. The timeliness and value of the deterministic and probabilistic products are evaluated during the entire hurricane season.

End date : September 30, 2007

Partners:
University of Miami - Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science
University of Florida - Department of Civil and Coastal Engineering
University of Central Florida - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
The Johns Hopkins University - Applied Physics Laboratory
US Army - Corps of Engineers
NOAA - Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
NOAA - National Weather Service
Oceanweather, Inc.
International Business Machines, Inc.
Gigantic Computer Services, Inc.
NASA - The John F. Kennedy Space Center
National Hurricane Center
The US Southern Command
US Navy - Naval Atlantic Meteorology and Oceanography Facility
Florida State Emergency Managers

Read an article from the UCF student newspaper, The Central Florida Future


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